World
Japan's Arms Export Ban Ended. Indonesia Signed 13 Days Later.
Japan's postwar lethal arms ban ended April 21. Indonesia signed a defense pact thirteen days later, putting Japanese submarines in competition with France for waters China and Jakarta pledged to develop jointly six months ago.
Japan scrapped its ban on lethal weapons exports on April 21, ending a prohibition maintained since 1967. Indonesia signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement in Jakarta thirteen days later. Prabowo Subianto had already committed to North Natuna "joint maritime development" with Beijing in November 2024, a move critics called a grave mistake.
Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi flew to Jakarta for the May 4 signing. His counterpart Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin committed to an Integrated Defense Dialogue Mechanism that supersedes the 2021 non-lethal framework, which capped sales at surveillance systems, radar, and transport equipment. The new pact removes that ceiling.
Japan has since offered eight Mogami-class frigates, priced in the 2021 bilateral model at ¥300 billion (roughly $2 billion), and second-hand Oyashio-class submarines. Indonesia's navy confirmed receiving both offers in mid-May. The Oyashio tranche carries no public price tag.
France's Naval Group holds a $2.1 billion contract for two Scorpène Evolved submarines at PT PAL's Surabaya yard, activated in July 2025. Steel cutting qualified in December, with full construction beginning June 2026. Japan's Oyashio offer targets the four additional submarines Indonesia has said it wants beyond that pair.
Prabowo's 2026 defense budget reached 337 trillion rupiah, roughly $19.4 billion, the largest in ASEAN. Indonesia signed a Major Defense Cooperation Partnership with Washington on April 13, eleven days before Japan lifted its own ban. Jakarta has held one condition across every agreement it has signed: no basing rights for either party.
Japan's Oyashio offer changes the math on who pays for Indonesia's patrol capacity along the Lombok corridor. China routes 11.6 million barrels of crude a day through Malacca and its Indonesian alternatives. Japan's LNG imports take the same passage. Tokyo is now the defense patron of the country that controls both.
Full construction on France's first Scorpène begins at PT PAL in June 2026. A Japanese MOU before that date would put two submarine supply chains in simultaneous build at the same yard. No other ASEAN navy holds that posture.