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PJM Capacity Costs Rose 262%. The Tab Runs to May 2028.
PJM's market monitor confirmed Q1 2026 wholesale prices at $136.53/MWh, up 75.5% from a year earlier. Capacity costs rose 262% in 2025; the $23.1 billion data-center tab across three auctions includes $6.2 billion from the latest auction against facilities with no commercial operation date.
Monitoring Analytics published Q1 2026 pricing data this week showing PJM customers paid $136.53/MWh, up 75.5%, with capacity costs accounting for most of the increase.
The quarterly report extends annual data released in March showing PJM's full-year 2025 wholesale bill reached $67 billion, up 54% from $43.5 billion in 2024. Energy costs, which make up 60% of the total, rose 51%. Capacity costs rose 262%, pushing their share of the bill from 6.5% to 16%.
PJM's December 2025 auction covered the 2027/2028 delivery year and cleared at $333.44/MW-day. Governor Josh Shapiro secured that ceiling via a December 2024 FERC complaint; PJM settled in January 2025, and without that settlement PJM estimated clearing would have reached $529/MW-day. Shapiro later won a further extension through 2030 in February 2026.
Monitoring Analytics found data centers accounted for $6.5 billion of the December 2025 auction's $16.4 billion in costs. Of that, $6.2 billion came from forecast load carrying no commercial operation date. The monitor tracked $9.3 billion in 2025/2026, $7.3 billion in 2026/2027, and $6.5 billion in 2027/2028, totaling $23.1 billion across three auctions.
That December auction fell short on reliability as well. PJM procured 145,777 MW for the 2027/2028 delivery year, falling 6,625 MW short of its installed reserve margin target. The preceding 2026/2027 auction, cleared in July 2025 at $329.17/MW-day, came up 210 MW short.
The $6.2 billion in forecast-load costs indicates the market has already priced in a buildout risk Monitoring Analytics labeled "extreme uncertainty." Ninety-five percent of the 2027/2028 data-center tab rests on announced load with no confirmed commercial operation date. Where El Paso Electric deferred that same exposure until 2032, PJM's capacity mechanism bills ratepayers in the current rate cycle.
Monitoring Analytics has proposed a dedicated mechanism to carve forecast data-center load out of the general rate base. The 2028/2029 BRA is in June 2026. If FERC has not acted by then, a fourth auction will price against load the monitor has never attached a materialization estimate to.