Nasdaq Set a Record on the Day PPI Hit 6%

April producer prices rose 1.4% on May 13, the largest monthly gain in four years; the Nasdaq reversed a premarket loss to close at a fresh all-time high.

The 12-month PPI gauge hit 6.0%, up from 4.3% in March and above the 4.9% consensus, the steepest year-over-year print since December 2022. Trade services jumped 2.7%, consistent with tariff costs crossing into wholesale pricing.

The 2-year Treasury crossed 4.0% after the print; the 10-year closed at 4.47%, its highest since July. The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair 54-45 that afternoon. In his April Banking Committee testimony, Warsh called inflation "a choice" the Fed must own "without excuse or equivocation."

Polymarket's December 2026 hike contract sat at roughly 11% through most of April, with CME FedWatch in similar territory. CPI on May 12 pushed the CME figure to roughly 30%; PPI the following session pushed it to 39%. The dollar lagged: DXY added 0.2% to 98.56, falling 0.44% short of the 99.00 level flagged as the rate-differential catch-up trade.

The Nasdaq 100 had fallen 1.9% before the open, tracking bond yields higher. By midday, Reuters reported Huang had joined Trump's Beijing delegation after a direct presidential call; H200 sales had produced no deliveries since January approval, per Semafor. Equities had been building toward this: high-yield spreads sat at their tightest post-March level, and the Composite reversed to close up 1.2% at 26,402.34.

Rate-hike odds tripling in 48 hours reframes this as a two-variable problem: whether Beijing can cap supply costs before Warsh decides the 6% print is the answer.

Warsh's first FOMC statement drops June 17; tightening language there means the Nasdaq's May 13 record was built on the wrong calendar.